Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 17.622852 20.530924 23.719063 27.466858 31.744850 36.468506 42.071872
2024-10-06 13.226836 17.292432 22.220247 28.598621 36.598076 46.257445 58.758988
2024-10-13 10.804866 15.466696 21.576295 30.089085 41.548882 56.333496 76.723542
2024-10-20 8.526467 13.206375 19.766700 29.498483 43.400784 62.346645 89.870404
2024-10-27 6.668221 11.098158 17.697954 28.052341 43.640869 65.926596 99.793096
2024-11-03 6.053839 10.697072 17.971632 29.919816 48.688592 76.571751 120.490242
2024-11-10 5.664535 10.562666 18.589500 32.319504 54.707447 89.099861 144.978138
2024-11-17 4.954524 9.754987 17.985079 32.643665 57.443723 96.813984 162.744819
2024-11-24 4.240890 8.809747 16.997042 32.163957 58.753186 102.313001 177.391905
2024-12-01 3.578791 7.839628 15.814661 31.166362 59.023429 106.063667 189.408394
2024-12-08 3.138444 7.222034 15.178365 31.041674 60.743235 112.289161 205.908275
2024-12-15 2.793163 6.737037 14.719758 31.171928 62.893840 119.367259 224.319915
2024-12-22 2.286911 5.844648 13.389449 29.577280 61.913825 121.266431 234.632805
2024-12-29 2.085404 5.603489 13.369407 30.613680 66.109387 132.958103 263.607516
2025-01-05 1.946436 5.482349 13.585664 32.161962 71.472444 147.273819 298.560462
2025-01-12 1.667477 4.957387 12.825979 31.527077 72.352973 153.183127 318.319508
2025-01-19 1.376260 4.333105 11.730790 29.989241 71.159064 154.924127 330.216193
2025-01-26 1.325525 4.349457 12.162939 31.972781 77.674334 172.461816 374.186875
2025-02-02 1.304322 4.445417 12.804328 34.520923 85.668936 193.603244 426.805678
2025-02-09 1.176870 4.201354 12.543326 34.865052 88.762939 204.880121 460.329636
2025-02-16 1.028914 3.859568 11.969300 34.355766 89.839478 211.985907 485.789818
2025-02-23 0.880438 3.478418 11.221840 33.296531 89.495813 215.985578 505.002154
2025-03-02 0.783645 3.245464 10.849918 33.164126 91.350667 224.913521 535.304386